Socio-hydrological modeling of the tradeoff between flood control and hydropower provided by the Columbia River Treaty

Abstract. The Columbia River Treaty (CRT) signed between the United States and Canada in 1961 is known as one of most successful transboundary water treaties. Under continued cooperation, both countries equitably share collective responsibilities reservoir operations flood control hydropower benefits from treaty dams. As balance key factor future cooperation could be challenged by external social environmental factors which were not originally anticipated or change preferences two actors. To understand robustness dynamics, we address research questions. (i) How does influence dynamics? (ii) do probability for actors? We analyzed infrastructural, hydrological, economic, social, data to inform development a socio-hydrological system dynamics model. model simulates benefit sharing function cooperate, turn affected benefits. used evaluate scenarios that represent institutional changes political characteristics based on preferences. Our findings show stronger capacity ensures equitable over long term. current CRT, utility always higher than non-cooperation, contrast States. cooperate each country lowest when they are self-interested but fluctuates other preference scenarios.